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WHAT IF?

What if a company, let’s call it Walmart for lack of a better name, made a pronouncement that sales were 5% higher this year? What if after the stocks went up and bonuses were given out someone noticed that gross sales were actually down? What if the company in its defense said it was only counting purchases per customer and that they saw no reason to worry about those that were no longer buying? Would the SEC be called in to investigate? Would the world stop and accuse Walmart of manipulating numbers for personal gain?

Of course Wal-Mart has not done this and it is unlikely it or any major retailer would stoop so low, if for no other reason than they would be caught right away. Although this is below the threshold of the private sector it is well within the morals of the public sector. In fact this type of misleading statistics is a mainstay of politics today. This is never more true then as it applies to unemployment statistics. The number cited is always those that are currently “shopping for a job” but not those for whom unemployment has become a chronic condition. This of course is totally analogous to the idea of talking about sales to shoppers but ignoring there is less shoppers. Unfortunately when the government plays the stats game there is no SEC to cry foul.

The truth is the economy is significantly worse than the modified statistics touted by the government show. As in the Walmart example, it is not the shoppers that count but the gross numbers, in this case the size of the work force. The truth is the size of the workforce is down and according to Rick Santelli of MSNBC it is down to 1981 numbers. So what is the true unemployment rate? Who knows for sure but Gallup is showing non-seasonally adjusted unemployment is up and their 19% of unemployed and underemployed is not much different then it was two years ago.

If this has you confused as to what the unemployment rate really is then it appears the politicians have accomplished what they wanted. The truth is the U.S. hasn’t seen seen such stubborn unemployment figures since the Great Depression. Sure it was higher under Jimmy Carter but it at least then it was not so enduring (Thank you Ronald Reagan). The politicians can play with the numbers all they want but cooking the books does not change reality.

It is likely that if we were under a Republican administration the media would be claiming Armageddon (remember the comparisons to the Great Depression under Bush when unemployment was running between 4 and 5 percent). Fortunately for the President he is not a Republican and most of the media has no interest in exposing him to ridicule. Of course the same cannot be said of this web site and many others. The president can adjust his unemployment figures as much as he wants but it does not change what most of America knows. The U.S. economy is sick and likely to get worse. It has become increasingly clear this president has no clue what to do or where even to start.

This summer many are predicting recession in Europe, Greece finally meeting its financial Waterloo and even China having problems. These extra strains will take their toll on the United States’ already fragile economy. The President will likely demand more “stimulus” in the form of welfare, unemployment checks and handouts of borrowed money; none of which of course will do anything to fix or stimulate the economy. Hopefully this November the American people will realize that after four years of Dr. Obama’s magic elixirs that it’s time to get a second opinion.

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”
Mark Twain

The Conservative Mind

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